It is now two years since the publication of the GP Forward View (GPFV). Do things feel any better? Not for most GPs. In a recent Pulse survey 80% reported their workload had worsened over the last two years. So why has the promised £2.4bn recurrent investment, with all the trimmings alongside, failed to have any impact so far?

Looking back, I wonder what the GPFV was. Was it a strategy document? Not really, because there was no clear sense of direction. A recovery document for a service in crisis? Maybe, although it was written at arm’s length from GPs as providers. I think it was a commissioning plan, or commissioning intentions at a stretch. It was what NHS England, and the CCGs, would do to support a service in crisis. It was also a public, political document designed to demonstrate the concerns of GPs had been heard and were being addressed.

Understanding what the document was gives an insight into why it is not working. The headline investment figure of £2.4bn was an overstated figure. The real five-year investment plan was under £1bn. But the figures were extrapolated back to 2013 (the details are here) to inflate the figure to £2.4bn. Promising more than is going to be delivered is a sure-fire recipe for underwhelming results.

A cynical view of the document is that it was also a very clever way of packaging the extended access agenda to make it palatable to GPs, at a time when many were close to breaking point. While the share of funding for general practice within overall NHS expenditure has not really changed, the challenges of GP recruitment have not been addressed, and workload continues to rise, the one clear “success” of the document is that extended GP access is being introduced across the country. Ask any CCG which of the targets in the GPFV they are most closely monitored on and they will tell you it has been all about access. While the problems in general practice have not been alleviated, the government’s primary agenda for the service is being delivered.

There are some good things in the GPFV. The Releasing Time for Care programme and the work of Robert Varnum on the 10 high impact actions, which I admit I was initially sceptical about, I now think is possibly the most impactful part of the document. Practices changing themselves is the only realistic way out of the crisis, and this programme empowers and enables practices to do this. The support for indemnity looks like it is heading in the right direction, and the funding for new roles such as pharmacists has definitely helped.

But the reality is the workforce crisis persists (1,300 full time equivalent GPs left between September 2015 and September 2017), the workload continues to grow, the capital investment through the elusive ETTF simply has not materialised, and funding remains insufficient. Worse, the rhetoric around the GPFV has put general practice to the back of the queue when further funding is announced, e.g. the chancellor’s pledge of an additional £2.8bn to the NHS at the last budget had nothing earmarked for general practice.

Our collective failure to understand what the GPFV as a document was means we are now left without a clear plan or sense of direction for general practice. We initially thought (wrongly) the GPFV provided this, but what it needed (and what it still needs) is a provider led response to say this is how we will use the commissioner promises made in the GPFV to deliver a new future for general practice, and this is what it will look like. There are enough green shoots out there (the primary care home, the great work of NHS Collaborate, and the 108 episodes of the GP podcast are all testament to that) for this to be possible. But without it, either at a local or a national level, I fear the situation will be worse in 2021 than it was when the GPFV was published.