What is the Optimum Practice List Size?

The latest figures on GP practice size indicate that the number of GP practices has fallen from over 8,000 when the NHS England first published the statistics to 6,708 in September this year.  Fewer practices, as well as an increase in the size of the registered population, has meant the average practice list size has risen from 5,891 in 2004 to 9,007 now.

GP practice size has always been a (relatively) controversial issue. There are fierce defendants of small practice sizes and the relationship it creates between the practice and the population it serves.  At the same time there has been a move to larger (sometimes much larger) practices as a response to workforce, workload and financial pressures.

Research on the issue is generally inconclusive.  The 2014 study by the Institute of Fiscal Studies Does GP Practice Size Matter? GP Practice Size and the Quality of Primary Care, while it found that, “all three indicators of quality that we examined show that smaller practices are associated with poorer quality in primary care services”, it equally had to caveat, “The relationships between GP practice size and GP behaviour are not necessarily causal. This report controls for differences in the characteristics of the practice population, the local area and the GPs themselves in order to adjust for factors that may impact on both practice size and the indicators we examine. However, a considerable number of unobservable factors remain, such as the underlying health status of the practice populations, and could explain why smaller practices tend to perform differently.”

The Nuffield Trust 2016 report “Is Bigger Better? Lessons for large scale general practice” found that although, “larger scale has the potential to sustain general practice through operational efficiency and standardised processes, maximising income, strengthening the workforce and deploying technology”, the “evidence that these organisations can improve quality is mixed. Patients had differing views about the benefits of large-scale organisations. Some appreciated increased access, while others were concerned about losing the close relationship with their trusted GP.”

Overall the research is inconclusive.  A bigger practice feels more resilient, but brings with it concerns around quality and losing the ‘essence’ of general practice.

All of this research was of course before Primary Care Networks were introduced.  Before last year the range of at-scale options available to practices was essentially mergers, super-practices, and GP federations.  Each had varying losses of autonomy and potential associated benefits (ie merging meant changing the core functionality of the practice but with a huge possible upside, whereas joining a federation meant minimal change but with a much more limited upside).

Why PCNs are interesting is they signal a clear commissioner intent to drive the majority of investment in general practice through PCNs.  All previous movements towards at scale working were in the context of a core contract centred on the individual GP practice.  Now there is the PCN contract and all that entails to take into account.

If we add in the RCGP Fit for Future 2019 report, which basically establishes the future role of general practice as that attempting to be played by the PCN (an expanded multi-professional team, joint working across practices and collaboration with other local organisations to serve a local population), then it doesn’t take a huge leap of faith to think the PCN contract may ultimately become more important (in terms of financial and workload implications) than the GP practice contract.

PCNs are developing their infrastructure, staffing and delivery capability as we speak.  The obvious question, then, is whether it is sensible to have parallel practice and PCN delivery structures?  If one practice was the PCN, it would have the governance, be able to flex the utilisation of the staff, and be able to build on existing delivery capacity.

Is it really stretching the imagination for practices to start to consider whether the answer to what is the optimum practice size is actually that of the PCN?  I understand the resistance to this, why fears of exactly this is what fuelled the backlash against the PCN DES, but as a neutral observer looking at the strategic options for practices this is definitely the direction I would head if I was running a practice right now.

The PCN Investment and Impact Fund Explained

NHS England published a set of guidance last week in relation to the PCN DES.  One specific piece of guidance was detail on how the new Investment and Impact Fund (IIF) is going to work.

The IIF has the feel of one of those initiatives that probably started out as a good idea, but has been watered down so much in the making of it a reality that its impact is likely to be minimal.

For a start, the sums we are talking about pale into insignificance when compared to some of the other funds on offer to PCNs.  An “average” PCN can earn a maximum of £21,534 in this year’s IIF.  Compare that with the c£350,000 (£7.131 per weighted patient (pwp)) the average PCN has received through the Additional Role Reimbursement Scheme, or even the £75,000 (£1.50 pwp) core PCN funding.  These sums require very little effort from the PCN.

PCNs have already received  c£13,500 (£0.27 per weighted patient) for the six months up to the end of September as a Covid “support payment” for the PCN.  The question, then, is whether the £21,534 available between October 1st and March 31st is going to be sufficient to entice PCNs into action, particularly in the context of everything else that is going on.

It depends to some extent on how achievable the targets are.  The scheme is designed like a QOF scheme, but at a PCN rather than practice level.  There are 194 IIF “points” available, each worth £111 each (adjusted for list size and prevalence).  These points are divided across 6 indicators.  For each indicator there are limits outside of which practices either earn zero or the maximum, with a sliding scale applied in between:

Indicator No of points Upper limit Lower Limit £ available
% patients aged 65+ who received a seasonal flu vaccination 72 77% 70% £7,992
%patients on the learning disability register aged 14+ who received an annual learning disability health check 47 80% 49% £5,217
% patients referred to social prescribing 25 0.4% 0.8% £2,775
% patients aged 65+ currently prescribed a non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) without a gastro-protective medicine 32 30% 43% £3,552
% patients aged 18+ currently prescribed an oral anticoagulant (warfarin or a direct oral anticoagulant) and an antiplatelet without a gastro-protective medicine 6 25% 40% £666
% patients aged 18+ currently prescribed aspirin and another antiplatelet without a gastro-protective medicine 12 25% 42% £1,332

It will be hard for any individual practice to achieve the 75% flu vaccination target, let alone 77%.  It will be even more difficult for a whole PCN to achieve it. A non-guaranteed incentive payment of less than £8,000 is not going to change behaviour.  PCNs may well work very hard to achieve as high a vaccination coverage as possible for their local population, but it will be because they want to protect their local population, not because of the IIF.

Even if a PCN does examine the scheme and thinks the rewards could be worth the effort, there are further barriers to overcome.  To earn any IIF funding, a PCN must first “commit in writing to the commissioner that it will reinvest the total achievement payment into additional workforce and/or primary medical services” (2.15).

I find this astonishing.  The IIF funding is not recurrent (it has to be re-earnt each year) but the cost of any additional staff or service delivery is, so how is this supposed to work as an incentive? Equally, if a PCN invests in extra resources to achieve these targets it does not seem as if they can refund their own outlay with any money earned.

We will have to wait and see how these restrictions are applied in practice (e.g. whether any earned IIF funding can be applied retrospectively, whether it can be used to fund on-costs of additional staff not covered by ARRS funds etc).  Hopefully common sense will prevail.  Either way, it seems that either the policy should be to create incentives and allow PCNs the freedom to innovate to achieve them, and the freedom to use those incentives as it sees fit, or it should abandon any notion of payment for performance (which is what this scheme at its heart is) and stick with fixed payments for expected deliverables.  As it stands, this scheme neither promotes investment nor looks like it will have much impact.

The Growing Influence of PCNs

We are just over a year from the formation of PCNs and, despite the pandemic, their importance and influence is growing.  Could this incarnation of general practice be the one that finally starts to shape the NHS around the needs of local populations?

The voice of general practice has long been sought after.  Right back from the days of GP fundholding, different regimes have tried different ways to enable general practice, the “gatekeepers” of the NHS, to have a bigger say in how the service is organised.

It would seem the main problem, however, is that this has been done throughout any extremely long NHS experiment with the purchaser provider split.  Each attempt so far (fundholding, primary care groups, primary care trusts, practice based commissioning and clinical commissioning groups) has been hampered by the inability of any of these incarnations (or indeed any form of purchasing) to make its mark on the shape of healthcare provision.

As the purchasing model is finally put out of its misery, and CCGs simultaneously reduce in number and influence, the new order is starting to take shape.  Centre stage are Primary Care Networks.

The NHS already knows that merging organisations makes no difference.  Integration is not about the merger of providers.  We used to have merged community and acute providers.   Back then the argument was that resources were being stripped from community services to fund hospital services.  What was needed was to make community services organisations independent in their own right.  We have just come back full circle.

Merging or not merging organisations is not what integration is about.  Integration is about doing things differently.  About working in different ways to change the experience and outcomes for local people.  The only chance integration, and integrated care systems, has of making this difference is at the level of the Primary Care Network.

This is really important.  Integrated care systems and integrated care partnerships are dependent on PCNs to be successful.

PCNs may only be just over one year old, but we already have groups of practices almost universally working together to provide care for their local populations.  The work to deliver enhanced care into care homes, and to deliver a social prescribing service, has already begun.  Practices are building relationships with voluntary organisations, local authorities, and care and nursing homes in ways not seen before.

We are less than one month away from PCNs finding ways to deliver structured medication reviews to those who need it most, and to support early cancer diagnosis.  With each new service we will see new relationships form, new ways of delivery develop, and new benefits for patients and local people result.

PCNs are not purely conceptual (the problem with many of the purchasing constructs).  An army of new staff who will actively deliver care are currently being recruited.  PCNs up and down the land are building teams of pharmacists, physiotherapists, physician associates and more.  About 10,000 new staff are being put in place this year to provide the energy and impetus to make this work.  Thousands more are to follow next year, and the year after, and the year after that.

PCNs worry about their voice at the “top table” of integrated care.  But the reality is the power sits with them, because they are the ones who can effect real change.  This power will only grow, as their resources grow and they deliver more.  This really could be the opportunity for general practice to finally make the difference it has been seeking to make for so long.

Do PCNs need a manager?

In the update to this year’s GP contract the increase in funding for additional roles for PCNs from 70% to 100% was heralded in this way:

We have heard that the £1.50/head support for PCNs – worth £72,000 annually for an average PCN – has been deployed to contribute to the 30% funding of additional roles.  Instead it can now be used as needed for development and transformation support.  It equates to a full-time band 8A, and increasing the contribution of Clinical Director time by almost 50%.  We encourage Clinical Directors to use the funding to ensure sufficient support as rapidly as possible”.

A band 8A manager, for those not fully conversant with NHS pay scales, attracts a not insignificant salary of between £45,753 and £51,668.

Some PCNs have taken the plunge and employed a manager.  Others are more reticent.  The relative ease with which the PCN requirements were able to be handled in 2019/20 meant many PCNs decided to return much of the (unused) £1.50 to practices at the end of the year, and in doing so set a precedent that some PCN CDs are now uncomfortable breaking.

Part of the problem of course is that a salary of c£50K for a PCN manager is significantly higher than the salary of the average practice manager.  On the one hand, PCN CDs don’t want to be accused of stealing practice managers from local practices, and on the other it is very hard for a manager with no local knowledge to come in and work effectively across practices.  Especially when the local PMs know exactly how much the incoming PCN manager is being paid…

It is very difficult for an outsider to come in as manager and be effective straight away with a group of practices.  This requires trust, which needs time to build, and the covid restrictions make that all the more difficult right now.  It is hard to build relationships via Zoom.

Do PCNs really need a manager?  Is it worth the investment?

Many PCNs have been able to cope perfectly adequately without one until now.  Unfortunately this is no great indicator that this will be the case in future.  On October 1st three new service specifications kick in for PCNs (care homes, medication reviews and supporting early cancer diagnosis), alongside the requirement for PCNs to offer a social prescribing service.  In addition, the new Investment and Impact fund (think PCN QOF) begins.

In six months’ time four more service specifications will need to be delivered, while at the same time PCNs will take on the responsibility for delivering extended access.

Many PCNs are currently recruiting an average of 10 staff, with another 6 or 7 to be recruited by the start of next year.  These staff will generate work, headaches and challenges (new staff always do), and someone will need to pick up the pieces.

Without a PCN manager, who is going to do all of this work?  This is without mentioning the plethora of system meetings (just say no), the data sharing and patient engagement requirements, and any local initiatives the PCN has committed to.  Is the PCN CD expected to do all of this in 2 or 3 sessions a week?  Or the PCN practice managers in their spare time?  I don’t think so.

If your PCN does not yet have a manager in place, the time has come to bite the bullet and recruit.  From October not having a PCN manager will cost more than having one.  Don’t put it off any longer.  Some practices might not like it, but the sheer scale of work means that PCNs will not be able to function effectively without one from October.

Why Flu Planning is So Difficult this Year

There cant be anyone working in general practice who has not yet been asked what their plans are for the flu season.  But I am not 100% sure those asking always understand why the question is so difficult this year.

We are still very much in the planning stage, as we await the arrival of the first vaccines.  It is difficult to know how well prepared practices are, but what is certain is preparations are much more difficult than in previous years.

In part this is because of national shifting sands on three fronts: the cohorts to be vaccinated; the PPE requirements; and getting hold of the vaccines.

The season started with a message that 50-64 year olds are to receive the flu vaccine this year.  This was then changed to a message that this will only happen later in the season, if vaccine supplies allow.  So now we have a vocal cohort of individuals contacting practices demanding a vaccine that practices won’t be paid to administer, and confusion across practices as to exactly what they are supposed to be doing.

Initially the PPE requirements were a face mask for every session, with new gloves and apron to be worn for each patient.  Once forward thinking practices, PCNs and GP federations had dutifully mass purchased the required equipment, the guidance was changed so that only sessional face masks are now required.  And who knows whether it will change again in future.

As for vaccine supplies, no one knows how that is supposed to work.  Because practices generally order vaccines a year in advance, the orders placed are for the normally expected amounts.  This would be 50-55% of a practice’s usual cohort, which means practices are well short of the 75% needed to achieve the target, even before this year’s additional cohorts are added on.

Anyone who has tried to order additional supplies will know all remaining vaccine stocks are being purchased centrally.  What we don’t know is how any central supply will work in practice, and how these vaccines will be distributed to practices.  But given the recent experience of central purchasing and distribution of PPE, it is not surprising there is little confidence amongst practices that this will work well.

However, these are not even the biggest challenges practices face in developing their flu plans.  Traditional systems of flu delivery (bringing in large numbers of patients over a weekend or two) simply will not work this year.

The social distancing requirements mean that patients need to be given more specific appointment times, and the usual method of “stacking” multiple patients at once cannot be used.  The high DNA rates that can usually be offset using this method will have a significant impact.  Practices will also need additional staff to ensure social distancing standards are adhered to and manage any queues that form.

At the same time, the social distancing and PPE requirements mean that clinicians will be able to vaccinate far less patients per session.  I have seen the overall impact of this estimated at a vaccination rate of one patient every six or even eight minutes, compared to one roughly every two minutes in previous years.

What this means is that practices can see less patients in a session, but with higher staff costs.  The net impact has been estimated as meaning that the costs of vaccination will rise by between £6 and £9 per patient.  This of course calls into question whether practices can even carry out the vaccinations this year for the fee that is being offered (which currently remains unchanged from previous years).

This is why flu planning is so difficult this year.  I am not sure the system fully yet understands the extent of the challenge this creates for general practice, but I suspect when we move from the planning to the delivery phase these challenges will become much more evident.

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